Overbetting
Now that all the leagues are starting and we have a multitude of games every weekend, overbetting is a danger that is more than present in all tipsters as the wide range of matches offered by the bookmakers make it tempting to enter various markets and different bets without taking into account the phenomenon that we will describe below.
Overbetting is a term that comes from poker and its creation was necessary due to the constant appearance of this practice. In poker, overbetting is known as using a stake (bet amount) greater than recommended due to the mathematical possibility of winning a hand.
Let's suppose that in a game of poker between two players, before the last card of the table (river) is drawn, a player who has a straight draw and has a 30% chance of completing it on the last card. We have that his opponent bets something that is a stake 5 for him and our player with a straight draw calls.
You would be making a bad bet as you are risking a stake of 5 units to either win 5 or lose 5 units with a 30% chance, thus making a bad bet due to overbetting. You would be playing as if your chances were 50-50 when in reality they are 30%-70%, which in the medium to long term would result in guaranteed losses.
Overbetting on bets
In betting, overbetting occurs when we do not adjust our stake properly upon finding a value and exceed the optimal stake that should be placed on that value. For example, we find a value of 10% and apply a stake of 3 (see how to calculate the value and apply the stake HERE). We would be risking more than we should, as the chances of the bet turning in our favor are lower than the ones we are giving, even if the bet has value.
There's also a kind of overbetting when a tipster places more bets than they should, either because they bet on multiple markets they haven't studied or because they only see good and bad bets, taking all the good ones they see.
The table provides a clear example of overbetting due to excessive bets regardless of the stake and odds.
- Tipster 1 bets on all the good bets he sees, with a medium odds of @1.8. During the season, let's say he made 1000 bets with a success rate of 57%, obtaining a profit of $78 and a final yield of 2.6%.
- Tipster 2 studies his bets a little more; he has seen the same 1000 bets as tipster 1 but has ruled out 600 of those possible bets, thus increasing his success rate to 63%.
It does not seem like a very significant amount in the percentage of hits, but tipster 2 has managed to obtain double the profit by playing 1800 units less, by increasing only 6% in their percentage of hits compared to tipster 1 and their yield is at a good 13.4%.
Conclusion
In summary, it is important to be cautious when assigning a correct stake to a value to avoid overbetting. Additionally, we cannot enter all bets without studying the matchups as assuming fewer risks can lead to higher profits and yields.