Often we search for ways to ensure our bets, and one of them is to use strategies like dutching. It is a strategy that we can apply in a great number of markets for all sports, is quite easy to calculate and, most importantly, with less risk than a simple bet so it's easier to win. This strategy was developed by Arhur Simon Flegenheimer, also known as Dutch Schultz, a New York gangster from the 1920s and '30s, and has spread from horse racing to other sports.
What is dutching
This strategy consists of dividing the stake and betting in favor of several options in the same event to obtain the same profits. It is not about covering bets or ensuring bets -that situation is called greenbooking-, but by selecting different possibilities within the same event, we increase our chances of winning. The key point of dutching is the calculation of the stake, since we will have to bet an amount X on each option if we want to increase those winning chances.
Atletico Madrid hosts Espanyol before a Champions League matchday. We hope they win, but not by too much, so we are betting on 1-0, 2-0, or 2-1, placing a different amount on each exact score to ensure the same profit.
How to Calculate Dutching
To get this strategy right, we need to add up all the probabilities of the different bets we are going to make and divide the total by each of them. Next, multiply the result by the total stake we are going to play in that event. The result of this last operation will be the amount we should bet on each bet so that if one of the bets is a winner, we will always get the same net profits. Let's see how to calculate dutching step by step:
- Calculate the probability of each odds
- Add up the probabilities
- Calculate the percentage of the stake
- Multiply the result by the total stake
- Place your bets
Let's bet on the Spanish Formula 1 GP covering four pilots: Verstappen, with a odds of 3.25$; Leclerc, with a odds of 3.25$; Pérez, with a odds of 8$ and Sainz, with a odds of 9$. Our stake is 20 units, and the net profit we will obtain is 4.11 units. The following stakes apply:
- Verstappen @ 3.25 - stake 7.42 = 24.11 units - 20 units bet in total = 4.11 net units
- Leclerc@ 3.50 – stake 6.89 = 24.11 units – 20 units bet in total = 4.11 net units
- Pérez @ 8.00 - stake 3.01 = 24.11 units - 20 total units staked = 4.11 net units
- Sainz @ 9.00 - stake 2.68 = 24.11 units - 20 total units wagered = 4.11 net units
They are the four big favorites for victory, and by betting a different amount on each of them we will get the same net profits. Only a catastrophe or an unexpected winner's victory would prevent Philippines from winning those 4.11 net units. As we have said before, it is a fairly common strategy in horse betting, but it can also be applied to other sports.[dutching]
It's also interesting to use it in long term bets, such as Champions League winner bets or Eurobasket, covering the main favorites. To calculate the exact stake we need to bet on each market, we can use the formula we've seen or, even easier, use some of the online calculators you can find. Remember that you will have to place the bets one by one, and that being bets that go against each other, it's easy for them not to serve you to take advantage of any promotion.